A CAMPAIGN group has issued a stark warning that proposed government housing targets could result in a “unprecedented” population surge across Bournemouth, Christchurch, and Poole (BCP).

Under government proposals, all councils in the UK would be set mandatory housebuilding targets to pave the way to deliver 1.5 million new homes.

When announcing the plans back in July, Deputy Prime Minster Angela Rayner said the proposed targets would “boost the number of social and affordable homes, and give working families a better route to a secure home.”

The news hasn’t been welcomed by everyone however, as the Poole and Purbeck Group of the CPRE has issued a stark warning that proposed new housing targets in the BCP Local Plan could lead to an increase of over 100,000 people.

This projection is based on the Labour Government’s target of 44,370 new homes over 15 years, under the government’s housing method.

The CPRE said this is almost double the “much more sustainable” BCP Local Plan target of 24,000 new homes which will be the subject of a public hearing in the next two weeks.

READ MORE: Dorset’s housing target is “excessive, misguided and threatens environment” says campaign group

Dorset CPRE has expressed concerns that a population increase of this degree could result in severe environmental damage, infrastructure overload, and unsustainable urban sprawl.

Environmental and infrastructure challenges

The campaign group has argued BCP’s unique environmental and infrastructural constraints justify a departure from the standard method of assessing housing needs.

They say the current method relies on outdated population projections and does not account for BCP’s slower population growth trends.

“This discrepancy creates unrealistic expectations that threaten to overwhelm the region’s fragile ecosystems and constrained infrastructure,” a spokesperson for Dorset CPRE said.

“The Ministerial Statement of July 2024 itself acknowledged the flaws in the standard method for housing needs assessment.

“BCP’s population growth has not aligned with the assumptions made by this model, making an alternative approach both necessary and justified.”

The BCP area is home to nationally significant environments, including Poole Harbour, lowland heathlands, and the rivers Stour and Avon – and CPRE warns these are already under pressure from pollution, climate change, and urban expansion.

The CPRE has warned increased housing could exacerbate nutrient runoff, deoxygenation, and algal blooms, harming marine ecosystems and that low-lying coastal areas like Mudeford and Poole Quay are highly susceptible to rising sea levels and extreme weather events.

They said additional housing of this scale could increase peak-time traffic by 18.5%, further straining the road network.

Call for sustainable and balanced growth

Dorset CPRE supports a plan for realistic, sustainable housing numbers, including provision for affordable and social homes, while protecting the environment and green belt.

The charity advocates using available urban and brownfield sites and implementing stringent net-zero standards for new builds.

“BCP’s housing plan must strike a balance between meeting local needs and preserving the area’s unique environmental and social fabric,” the spokesperson added.

“It is vital that we focus on sustainable growth rather than unrealistic targets driven by central policy.”

At the forthcoming hearing into the draft BCP Local Plan, Dorset CPRE will be urging the planning inspectors to adopt a constraints-based approach to housing development, which reflects the region’s environmental sensitivities and infrastructure capacities.